The 2026 Macro Playbook: Rates, Inflation, Labor, and the Great Repricing Across U.S. Industries

As the U.S. economy moves toward 2026, many of the assumptions that guided corporate planning over the past decade are quietly being retired. Stable interest rates, predictable inflation, abundant labor, and frictionless capital flows are no longer reliable baselines. Instead, businesses across industries are operating within a macro environment defined by uncertainty, policy tension, and structural repricing—conditions that demand a different approach to risk, forecasting, and decision-making.

This forthcoming report will assess the macroeconomic landscape expected to shape Q1 2026, with a focus on how rates, inflation dynamics, labor availability, and credit conditions interact across sectors. Rather than offering a single-point forecast, the analysis will examine competing scenarios and the second-order effects they create for real-world operators—particularly mid-market firms that must plan budgets, staffing, and capital investments without the buffers available to larger institutions.

The full report will explore three core dimensions of the 2026 macro environment. First, the evolving interest rate regime and the implications of fiscal pressure, monetary recalibration, and credit fragmentation across regions and industries. Second, the changing nature of inflation, where services, labor, and supply-chain constraints increasingly drive cost pressure even as headline measures fluctuate. Third, the labor and productivity transition, as demographic shifts and AI adoption reshape workforce dynamics and capital allocation decisions.

Rather than treating macroeconomic forces as abstract signals observed from a distance, this series will frame them as inputs that directly influence operational risk, pricing power, and strategic resilience. The Q1 2026 Macro Playbook will highlight which industries appear most exposed to repricing, where volatility is likely to surface first, and how organizations can move from reactive forecasting toward scenario-aware planning that adapts as conditions evolve.

The complete report will synthesize macro indicators with industry-specific implications, offering decision-makers a clearer framework for navigating uncertainty without relying on outdated assumptions or oversimplified narratives.

This report will conclude the launch of the 2026 Outlook Series, serving as the connective tissue between industry-specific risks and the broader economic forces shaping the year ahead.